After more than 10 years of economic expansion in the United States, another downturn was anticipated, but not for the reasons or in the way that it has occurred. The disruption caused by COVID-19 to U.S. (and global) economic output is unprecedented. Some estimates predict that the U.S. GDP could shrink by 9%—three times more than the drop in GDP during the 2008 Great Recession.

Law firms are not immune to this economic calamity. Based on the legal industry’s experience in 2008, junior associates, associates trained in hard-hit practices, and counsel and partners without business are particularly vulnerable to layoffs, furloughs or salary reductions. Law students and 2020 graduates, too, face an uncertain future. When comparing the COVID-19 financial crisis to the Great Recession, however, the economic forecast may not be so dire for young lawyers.

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