Computer vs. Lawyer? Many Firm Leaders Expect Computers to Win

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Junior lawyers are used to feeling like cogs in a machine. According to a new report, a surprising number of law firm leaders expect to be able to replace them with actual machines—and soon.

In a large-scale survey released this month, 35 percent of law firm leaders said they could envision replacing first-year associates with law-focused computer intelligence within the next five to 10 years. That's up from less than a quarter of respondents who gave the same answer in 2011.

The survey, conducted by law firm management consulting firm Altman Weil, included responses from chairs and managing partners at 320 firms with lawyer head counts ranging from 50 to more than 1,000.

More senior associates also wouldn’t be immune to replacement, according to the survey. One in five respondents thought technology could make second- and third-year associates redundant in the next decade.

Nearly half—47 percent—saw computers potentially replacing the paralegal tier.

The larger the firm, the greater the faith in technology—and the weaker the faith in associate indispensability. Fifty percent of heads of firms with 250 or more lawyers envisioned law-focused cognitive technologies replacing their first-years, compared with 30 percent at smaller firms, the survey found. And 30 percent of heads of larger firms said the same might be true for second- and third-years, compared with 15 percent at smaller firms.

The AI findings were part of a broader report that examined trends in law firm staffing, efficiency, performance and pricing.

The report comes amid a rush to develop sophisticated computing technology that can mimic the intelligence and training required for routine legal work. Many of the new legal apps are being developed in conjunction with the cognitive computing system IBM Watson, which, unlike earlier technologies, can mirror aspects of the human learning process.

Developers hope to refine applications that can "learn" to read and interpret millions of unstructured documents and data, look for patterns and connections, and make predictions—such as finding and reviewing vast numbers of court decisions and case outcomes or patent applications and approvals.

In August, Dentons announced a joint venture with a startup that is developing a new artificially intelligent legal assistant called ROSS that can research case law and answer legal questions posed in plain English.

Latham & Watkins also confirmed that it is test-driving new IBM Watson-based applications, including cognitive and predictive coding technologies, though the firm was reluctant to disclose details. (In some cases the firm is bound by nondisclosure agreements.)

“It’s a competitive area for both law firms and technology companies,” said LeeAnn Black, Latham’s chief operating officer.

When asked about the survey results, law firm leaders told The American Lawyer that it was wrong to assume that associate jobs were vulnerable. While discrete tasks may be increasingly handled by artificial intelligence, they said, associates won’t be replaced outright.

Black and Latham chair Bill Voge said associates won’t be edged out by smart computers at own their firm in the foreseeable future. "No matter what we plan on the technology front, we will always have first-year associates," Voge said. "They are the future partners of our firm.”