Many lawyers shy away from statistical analysis precisely because math wasn’t their strong suit in school, but the good news is that what sometimes appears to be a complex math problem actually has little to do with mathematics. Instead, it’s a problem of labeling and categorizing.
Statistical analysis is powerfully explanatory, counterintuitive, misleading and readily exploitable—all at once. It can reveal patterns and associations that otherwise are undetectable, yet it can blind people to deeper and more fundamental patterns and associations. Its reliance on probability provides a logical foundation for inferences while threatening to trigger cognitive biases responsible for numerous logical fallacies.
